Prevention tool of the month: mistakes, luck – or misfortune?

In many workplaces, decisions are only judged “correct” once the outcome is known. When things go well, skill is highlighted. When things go less well, we look for the mistake. But the outcome rarely tells the whole story.

This exercise can be used with your staff group or in a team meeting to sharpen awareness of where luck and misfortune played a role – and where a decision was actually professionally well-founded.

Brief definitions:

Luck: When factors beyond your control lead to a positive outcome.
Misfortune: When factors beyond your control lead to a negative outcome.

Using this definition as a starting point, the group selects a concrete situation from everyday work. It can be something that went less well or something that exceeded expectations. The situation is described briefly so everyone has the same understanding of what happened and what the outcome was.

Next, focus shifts to the decision-making moment. What was known at that time? What information was available? What professional considerations were behind the decision? The question is whether the decision – given the circumstances – was well-founded.

Then examine where luck and misfortune played a role. What was within the group’s control? What was outside it? Were there factors that, in hindsight, appear decisive? And how does the outcome affect our judgment?

A key reflection question could be: If the outcome had been different, would we have judged the decision differently? Often, we unconsciously let the result color our assessment of competence. Luck can be mistaken for skill. Misfortune can be mistaken for error.

By practicing the ability to distinguish between mistakes and outcomes influenced by luck or misfortune, the group strengthens fairness in evaluations. This provides a more accurate basis for learning – and contributes to a culture where it is possible to openly discuss what did not go as hoped.

How to do it:

1. Choose a concrete situation from everyday work.

2. Describe what happened and what the outcome was.

3. Return to the decision point: What did you know then?

4. Examine what was under your control – and what was not.

5. Reflect on how the outcome affects your judgment.

6. Discuss where luck and misfortune played a role.